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FDI英文文献及中文翻译

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Analysis: foreign direct investment in China

Last Updated(Beijing Time):2006-03-14 11:38

With a comprehensive view on the foreign direct investments since 2005, service industry, energy industry and its relevant sectors remain to be the hotspots of investment growth. At the same time, a lot of inland cities begins to become the targeted areas of foreign investment. As the Chinese government enhances its construction of new countryside, it is also possible for the countryside to attract more and more attention.

In recent years, foreign direct investment attracted into China, which hit the historic high of US$60.63 billion in 2004, has been witness a sustained growth; but in 2005, such a growth trend slowed down slightly with a little bit decrease on a year-on-year basis. In 2005, the number of newly established foreign-invested enterprises across China amounted to 44,001 with a year-on-year growth of 0.77 percent but the foreign investment actually used amounted to US$60.325 billion with a year-on-year decrease of 0.5 percent.

Since April 2005 (except September 2005), China's amount of foreign funds actually used in a single month has been witnessing a downtrend and the decrease margin for the amount of foreign funds actually used in the three respective months of the second quarter all surpassed 10 percent. Such a huge decrease margin is rarely seen in recent years.

So far as the source of foreign funds invested in China is concerned, the number of newly established enterprises with US investment in China and the amount of such investment decreased by 4.69 percent and 22.32 percent respectively in 2005. The number of newly established enterprises with funds from 10 Asian countries (regions) in China increased by 0.69 percentages, but the amount of such investment actually used decreased by 5.19 percentage. The newly established enterprises with funds from some free ports in China also decreased by 3.21 percent; yet, the number of newly established enterprises with funds from the original 15 EU member countries in China and the amount of such investment did increase by 17.46 percent and 22.52 percent respectively.

The facts that the economies of neighboring countries and developed countries picked up the developing speed and such countries attracted foreign investors with their own advantages have influenced the scale of China's utilization of foreign funds to some extent. In 2005, Russia attracted US$16.7 billion of foreign direct investments, which accounted for 2.2 percent of Russia's GDP. Russia, where the growth rate of market was only second to that in China, ranked the second in the world.

In 2005, the volume of foreign funds attracted to India, which has thus become the country ranking the second in the world, has surpassed that attracted into the United States. Vietnamese Ministry of Planning and Investment announced that Vietnam would attract US$4.5 - 4.6 billion, thus becoming one of the countries with the quickest economic growth rate in Southeast Asia.

The transition period after the entry into WTO has further cut down the doorsill for the Chinese market. The potentials to enjoy the largest growth rate of the service and trade market is a comparative advantage for China to attract foreign investment. It is expected that during a rather long forthcoming period of time, the service industry will remain as a field in the favor of foreign investment in China.

Retailing commerce is a service industry through which foreign investment entered into China rather early; the opening-up of the insurance industry has made it possible for foreign companies to enter into China gradually. At the end of 2004, the Chinese insurance industry had opened up all areas and all businesses except some statutory insurance businesses to foreign investment. The year 2005 is the first year for the Chinese insurance industry to implement the all-rounded opening-up to the outside world, and the market shares seized by foreign-funded insurance companies increased to nearly 7 percent during that year.

As shown by statistics of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC), the domestic insurance market opened up step by step in 2005: three foreign insurance companies were permitted to enter into China's market, and 25 foreign-funded insurance agencies set up in China. For the time being, the number of foreign-funded insurance companies has increased from 14 in 2000 to 40 in 2005. Altogether 27 out of the 46 insurance companies listed into the Fortune Top 500 of the World have set up their agencies in China.

Ever since December 6, 2005, China has further scaled up the opening-up of its banking industry. Foreign-funded financial institutions' management of Renminbi businesses has been extended to Shantou and Ningbo while five other cities of Harbin, Changchun, Lanzhou, Yinchuan and Nanning were opened up in advance. The latest statistics indicate that the businesses of foreign-funded banks in China develop very rapidly in recent years, and the respective annual growth rates of assets, deposits, and loans are all above 30 percent.

In September 2005, the Beijing Office of the US Peabody Energy Corporation, which is the largest private coal company in the world, officially set up. For the moment, Peabody Energy has contacted with Huaneng Power International, Inc., Shenhua Group and some large Iron Steel enterprises; in future, it will also provide raw materials to and conduct technological exchange with Chinese power and Iron Steel enterprises. Before that, the US Asian American Coal Inc. (AACI) had established the Shanxi Asian American Daning Energy Co., Ltd. and seized the holding right of 56 percent. Moreover, the US Morgan Bank purchased the 170 million H-stocks of the Yanzhou Mine, and companies from countries like Australia, South Korea, and Japan also went to China's major coal-producing provinces and autonomous regions like Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia to seek to get shares in local coal mines opened up.

The situation of tense power supply goes on as before. Multinationals think highly of the huge market of power-generating equipment in China, thus having expedited their investment in China. In October 2005, a joint venture invested by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. (MHI) from Japan in Guangzhou was completed and began to produce heat components, the core components of turbines; and it is expected that its sales would amount to 8 billion yen by 2010. Early as in April 2002, MHI signed a "Joint Venture Agreement" with Dong Fang Steam Turbine Works on the joint investment to set up the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Dongfang Gas Turbine (Guangzhou) Co., Ltd., a Chinese-foreign joint venture manufacturing heat components on gas turbines and providing after-sale services and maintenance of gas turbines. The total investment in the joint venture is approximately 4.5 billion yen with MHI offering 51 percent of the overall investment and Dongfang Steam Turbine offering the other 49 percent, and the term for the joint venture is 20 years.

In 2004, the French Alsthom Ltd. signed a framework agreement to set up a joint venture with the Beijing Jingcheng Mechanical Electrical Holding Co. Ltd (JCH) and its subordinate enterprise Beijing Heavy Electrical Machinery Factory so as to set up a long-term partnership between two parties on the manufacture of 60,000kw steam turbine sets.

Since the Tenth Five-year Period, China has expedited its steps in international exchanges and cooperation in agriculture and made prominent achievements. From 2001 to 2003, agricultural projects making use of foreign direct investment amounted to nearly 3,000 with a total agreement sum of US$5.7 billion. The annual amount is about US$1.9 billion on average, nearly twice the average annual agreements sum of foreign investment made use of during the 20 years before.

The salary costs in China's inland cities is 20~50 percent lower than in coastal cities, and the rising rate of salaries is slower than that in large cities and coastal cities as well; however, the investment environment in such cities has got consummated gradually in recent years. As a result, some foreign investors have stopped their investment in metropolises like Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou; instead, they begin to cast their eyes on Nanjing, Wuhan, Chongqing, Ningbo, Dalian, Shenyang etc., and slightly less eye-catching cities of the second echelon formation.

Mr. Wei Xinghua, the AmCham-China Chairman, expressed that in 2006, the investments from the United States in China will not only increase in a sustained way but nearly a half of US companies will also seek to invest in cities on the second and third-tier bench like Xi'an, Chengdu, and Dalian, etc. in the western and northeastern parts of China. According to him, quite many industries are all shifting from place to place at present; for example, the electronic assembly industry that was originally in Guangdong can go to Hohehot Municipality to conduct production. Moreover, there were originally some industries with traditional advantages like agriculture, large machinery, energy resources, chemical industry, etc. in the middle and western parts of China. Inland cities begin to demonstrate their charms, which will create conditions for foreign enterprises to invest there.

译文：

分析：外商对华直接投资

上次更新时间（北京时间） :2006 - 03 - 14日11时38分

通过全面观察的外国直接投资自2005年以来，服务行业，能源行业及其相关行业仍是投资增长的热点。与此同时，许多内陆城市开始成为有针对性的领域的外国投资。随着我国政府加强其建设新农村，也有可能用于农村，以吸引越来越多的关注。

近年来，外国直接投资吸引到中国，创下了历史最高水平的美国六百零六点三零零亿美元在2004年，已经看到了持续增长，但在2005年，这种增长趋势放缓略有一点点减少的一年上年度的基础上。 2005年，一些新设立的外商投资企业为全国各地的44001比去年同期增长百分之0.77 ，但实际利用外资总额为美国六百零三点二五零亿美元与去年同期减少了0.5个百分点。

2005年4月以来（除2005年9月） ，我国的数额为实际利用外资单月已经出现了下跌和利润减少的数额实际利用外资在三个各自个月的第二季度都超过百分之十。如此巨大的下降幅度是罕见的在最近几年。

迄今为止的源泉外资在华投资而言，一些新成立的企业，美国在华投资的金额减少了这些投资4.69百分之百分之22.32 ，分别于2005年。在一些新成立的企业，资金来自亚洲10个国家（地区）在中国增加了0.69的百分比，但这种投资金额实际使用比例下降了5.19 。新成立的企业在资金，一些免费的港口中也减少了百分之3.21 ;然而，一些新成立的企业，资金从原来的15个欧盟成员国中和这种投资的数额也增加了百分之17.46和22.52百分之分别。

的事实，经济的周边国家和发达国家拿起发展的速度和这些国家吸引外国投资者与自身优势产生了影响的规模，我国利用外资的资金在一定程度上。 2005年，俄罗斯吸引美国一百六十七点〇 〇亿美元外国直接投资，占百分之二点二，俄罗斯的国内生产总值。俄罗斯，那里的市场增长率只有第二，在中国，排名世界第二位。

2005年，外国资金大量吸引到印度，因此成为该国排名世界第二，已经超过了，吸引到美国。越南计划和投资宣布，越南将吸引4.5美元-共有46亿美元，从而成为一个国家的最快经济增长速度在东南亚。

过渡期加入WTO后，进一步降低门槛的中国市场。享受的潜力最大的增长速度，服务贸易市场是一个比较优势的中国吸引外国投资。预计，在相当长的即将到来的一段时间内，服务业将继续作为一个领域中的支持外商来华投资。

零售商业是通过这些服务行业的外国投资进入中国，而早期;开放保险业，使外国公司进入中国逐渐。截至2004年底，我国保险业开辟了所有领域和所有企业的法定保险以外的一些企业的外国投资。 2005年是第一年的中国保险业实施全方位开放，向外部世界，并检获的市场份额由外资保险公司增至近百分之七在这一年里。

统计数据显示的中国保险监督管理委员会（ CIRC ） ，国内保险市场的开放，一步一步在2005年： 3家外国保险公司获准进入我国市场，和25家外资保险机构在华设立。就目前而言，在一些外资保险公司数量已从14个在2000年至40年。共有27个的46家保险公司的上市公司到财富500强的世界已建立了自己的机构中。

自2005年12月6号，我国进一步扩大开放其银行业。外资金融机构管理的人民币业务已扩大到汕头和宁波，而其他5个城市的哈尔滨，长春，兰州，银川，南宁市已开辟了提前。最新的统计数据表明，企业的外资银行在我国发展十分迅速，近年来，和各自的年度增长率的资产，存款和贷款都超过百分之三十。

2005年9月，北京办事处的美国皮博迪能源公司，这是最大的私营煤炭公司在世界上，正式成立。目前，皮博迪能源已接触与华能国际电力国际公司，神华集团以及一些大型钢铁企业，在未来，它还将提供原料和开展技术交流与中国电力和钢铁企业。在此之前，美国亚美煤炭公司（ AACI ）成立了山西亚美大宁能源有限公司，并检获控股权的百分之五十六。此外，美国摩根银行购买了一万七点〇万氢储存的兖矿，公司从国家，如澳大利亚，韩国，日本也到中国的主要产煤省，自治区像山西，陕西，内蒙古寻求获得的股票在地方煤矿开放。

紧张的状况供电接着以前一样。跨国公司认为非常的庞大市场的发电设备中，从而加速其在华投资。 2005年10月，共同投资组建的合资企业三菱重工业株式会社（三菱重工）由日本在广州已经完成，并开始产生热量的元件，其核心组成部分涡轮; ，预计其销售额将达到八十零点零零亿日元到2010年。早在2002年4月，三菱重工签署了“合资协议”的董伐嗯汽轮机厂联合投资成立的三菱重工东方燃气轮机（广州）有限公司，一个中外合资制造业热部件气轮机，并提供售后服务和维修的燃气涡轮机。该项目总投资在合资公司约450亿日元，三菱重工产品的百分之五十一的整体投资和东方汽轮机提供其他百分之四十九，并任该合资企业为20年。

2005年9月，北京办事处的美国皮博迪能源公司，这是最大的私营煤炭公司在世界上，正式成立。目前，皮博迪能源已接触与华能国际电力国际公司，神华集团以及一些大型钢铁企业，在未来，它还将提供原料和开展技术交流与中国电力和钢铁企业。在此之前，美国亚美煤炭公司（ AACI ）成立了山西亚美大宁能源有限公司，并检获控股权的百分之五十六。此外，美国摩根银行购买了一万七点〇万氢储存的兖矿，公司从国家，如澳大利亚，韩国，日本也到中国的主要产煤省，自治区像山西，陕西，内蒙古寻求获得的股票在地方煤矿开放。

紧张的状况供电接着以前一样。跨国公司认为非常的庞大市场的发电设备中，从而加速其在华投资。 2005年10月，共同投资组建的合资企业三菱重工业株式会社（三菱重工）由日本在广州已经完成，并开始产生热量的元件，其核心组成部分涡轮; ，预计其销售额将达到八十零点零零亿日元到2010年。早在2002年4月，三菱重工签署了“合资协议”的董伐嗯汽轮机厂联合投资成立的三菱重工东方燃气轮机（广州）有限公司，一个中外合资制造业热部件气轮机，并提供售后服务和维修的燃气涡轮机。该项目总投资在合资公司约450亿日元，三菱重工产品的百分之五十一的整体投资和东方汽轮机提供其他百分之四十九，并任该合资企业为20年。

2005年9月，北京办事处的美国皮博迪能源公司，这是最大的工资费用在我国内陆城市的20 〜 50百分之低于沿海城市，以及工资上涨率是低于大城市和以及沿海城市，但是，投资环境等城市逐步得到了完善，近年来。因此，一些外国投资者已停止他们的投资在大城市如上海，北京和广州;相反，他们开始投他们的眼睛对南京，武汉，重庆，宁波，大连，沉阳等，略低于引人注目城市的第二梯队。

卫兴华先生，在美国商会中国委员会主席表示，在2006年，投资由美国在华不仅将持续增长的方式，但将近一半的美国公司也将寻求投资于城市的第二和第三级替补像西安，成都，大连等西部和东北部的部分中。据他说，不少行业都转移地点举行，目前，例如，电子装配业，最初在广东省可以到呼和浩特市进行生产。此外，还有一些原来的传统优势产业，像农业，大型机械，能源，化学工业等在中东和西部地区中。内陆城市开始展示他们的魅力，这将创造条件吸引外国企业来投资。

关于网络广告的英文文献

Online advertising

Online advertising is a form of promotion that uses the Internet and World Wide Web for the expressed purpose of delivering marketing messages to attract customers. Examples of online advertising include contextual ads on search engine results pages, banner ads, Rich Media Ads, Social network advertising, online classified advertising, advertising networks and e-mail marketing, including e-mail spam.

Competitive advantage over traditional advertising

One major benefit of online advertising is the immediate publishing of information and content that is not limited by geography or time. To that end, the emerging area of interactive advertising presents fresh challenges for advertisers who have hitherto adopted an interruptive strategy.

Another benefit is the efficiency of advertiser's investment. Online advertising allows for the customization of advertisements, including content and posted websites. For example, AdWords and AdSense enable ads shown on relevant webpages or aside of search results of pre-chosen keywords. Another is the payment method. Whatever purchasing variation is selected, the payment is usually relative with audiences' response.

Purchasing variations

The three most common ways in which online advertising is purchased are CPM, CPC, and CPA.

CPM (Cost Per Impression) is where advertisers pay for exposure of their message to a specific audience. CPM costs are priced per thousand impressions, or loads of an advertisement. However, some impressions may not be counted, such as a reload or internal user action. The M in the acronym is the Roman numeral for one thousand.

CPV (Cost Per Visitor) or (Cost per View in the case of Pop Ups and Unders) is where advertisers pay for the delivery of a Targeted Visitor to the advertisers website.

CPC (Cost Per Click) is also known as Pay per click (PPC). Advertisers pay each time a user clicks on their listing and is redirected to their website. They do not actually pay for the listing, but only when the listing is clicked on. This system allows advertising specialists to refine searches and gain information about their market. Under the Pay per click pricing system, advertisers pay for the right to be listed under a series of target rich words that direct relevant traffic to their website, and pay only when someone clicks on their listing which links directly to their website. CPC differs from CPV in that each click is paid for regardless of whether the user makes it to the target site.

CPA (Cost Per Action) or (Cost Per Acquisition) advertising is performance based and is common in the affiliate marketing sector of the business. In this payment scheme, the publisher takes all the risk of running the ad, and the advertiser pays only for the amount of users who complete a transaction, such as a purchase or sign-up. This is the best type of rate to pay for banner advertisements and the worst type of rate to charge. Similarly, CPL (Cost Per Lead) advertising is identical to CPA advertising and is based on the user completing a form, registering for a newsletter or some other action that the merchant feels will lead to a sale. Also common, CPO (Cost Per Order) advertising is based on each time an order is transacted.

Cost per conversion Describes the cost of acquiring a customer, typically calculated by dividing the total cost of an ad campaign by the number of conversions. The definition of "Conversion" varies depending on the situation: it is sometimes considered to be a lead, a sale, or a purchase.

CPE (Cost Per Engagement) is a form of Cost Per Action pricing first introduced in March 2008. Differing from cost-per-impression or cost-per-click models, a CPE model means advertising impressions are free and advertisers pay only when a user engages with their specific ad unit. Engagement is defined as a user interacting with an ad in any number of ways.[1]

Though, as seen above, the large majority of online advertising has a cost that is brought about by usage or interaction of an ad, there are a few other methods of advertising online that only require a one time payment. The Million Dollar Homepage is a very successful example of this. Visitors were able to pay $1 per pixel of advertising space and their advert would remain on the homepage for as long as the website exists with no extra costs.

Floating ad: An ad which moves across the user's screen or floats above the content.

Expanding ad: An ad which changes size and which may alter the contents of the webpage.

Polite ad: A method by which a large ad will be downloaded in smaller pieces to minimize the disruption of the content being viewed

Wallpaper ad: An ad which changes the background of the page being viewed.

Trick banner: A banner ad that looks like a dialog box with buttons. It simulates an error message or an alert.

Pop-up: A new window which opens in front of the current one, displaying an advertisement, or entire webpage.

Pop-under: Similar to a Pop-Up except that the window is loaded or sent behind the current window so that the user does not see it until they close one or more active windows.

Video ad: similar to a banner ad, except that instead of a static or animated image, actual moving video clips are displayed.

Map ad: text or graphics linked from, and appearing in or over, a location on an electronic map such as on Google Maps.

Mobile ad: an SMS text or multi-media message sent to a cell phone.

In addition, ads containing streaming video or streaming audio are becoming very popular with advertisers.

E-mail advertising

Legitimate Email advertising or E-mail marketing is often known as "opt-in e-mail advertising" to distinguish it from spam.

Affiliate marketing

Main article: Affiliate marketing

Affiliate marketing is a form of online advertising where advertisers place campaigns with a potentially large number of small (and large) publishers, whom are only paid media fees when traffic to the advertiser is garnered, and usually upon a specific measurable campaign result (a form, a sale, a sign-up, etc). Today, this is usually accomplished through contracting with an affiliate network.

Affiliate marketing was an invention by CDNow.com in 1994 and was excelled by Amazon.com when it launched its Affiliate Program, called Associate Program in 1996. The online retailer used its program to generate low cost brand exposure and provided at the same time small websites a way to earn some supplemental income.

Contextual advertising

Many advertising networks display graphical or text-only ads that correspond to the keywords of an Internet search or to the content of the page on which the ad is shown. These ads are believed to have a greater chance of attracting a user, because they tend to share a similar context as the user's search query. For example, a search query for "flowers" might return an advertisement for a florist's website.

Another newer technique is embedding keyword hyperlinks in an article which are sponsored by an advertiser. When a user follows the link, they are sent to a sponsor's website.

Behavioral targeting

In addition to contextual targeting, online advertising can be targeted based on a user's past clickstream. For example, if a user is known to have recently visited a number of automotive shopping / comparison sites based on clickstream analysis enabled by cookies stored on the user's computer, that user can then be served auto-related ads when they visit other, non-automotive sites.

Ads and malware

There is also class of advertising methods which may be considered unethical and perhaps even illegal. These include external applications which alter system settings (such as a browser's home page), spawn pop-ups, and insert advertisements into non-affiliated webpages. Such applications are usually labeled as spyware or adware. They may mask their questionable activities by performing a simple service, such as displaying the weather or providing a search bar. Some programs are effectively trojans. These applications are commonly designed so as to be difficult to remove or uninstall. The ever-increasing audience of online users, many of whom are not computer-savvy, frequently lack the knowledge and technical ability to protect themselves from these programs.

Ad server market structure

Given below is a list of top ad server vendors in 2008 with figures in millions of viewers published in a Attributor survey.

Vendor Ad viewers

Google 1,118

DoubleClick 1,079

Yahoo 362

MSN 309

AOL 156

Adbrite 73

Total 3,087

It should be noted that Google acquired DoubleClick in 2007 for a consideration of $3,100 million. The above survey was based on a sample of 68 million domains.

网络广告

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狭义的网络广告又被称为在线广告或者互联网广告；而广义的网络广告除了包括以计算机为核心组成的计算机网络为媒介的广告行为外，还包括其他所有以电子设备相互连接而组成的网络为媒介的广告行为，例如以无线电话网络，电子信息亭网络为载体的广告行为。在一般未做特殊说明的情况下，现在各资料所谈论的网络广告全指狭义网络广告。

狭义网络广告与传统广告有很多类似的地方，也分为很多不同广告形式，拥有多种计费方式。

常见的广告形式包括：

横幅式广告（banner）

通栏式广告

弹出式广告（pop-up ads）

按钮式广告（button）

插播式广告（interstitial ads）

电子邮件广告（E-DirectMarketing,EDM）

赞助式广告（sponsorship）

分类广告（classified ads）

互动游戏式广告（interactive game）

软件端广告

文字链接广告（text ads）

浮动形广告（floting ads）

联播网广告

关键字广告

比对内容广告

常见的记费方式包括：

按照千人印象成本（CPM）收费。

按照每点击成本（CPC）收费。

按照每行动成本（CPA）收费。

按照每回应成本（CPR）收费。

按照每购买成本（CPP）收费。

这些都是国际流行的收费模式。在中国和一些网络广告的发展中国家，则时常会采用以时间来购买的模式，如按每日投放成本收费，按每周投放成本收费等。

对网络广告的研究显示，50%的网络广告点击是由6%的用户产生的。而且这个点击群体是一个缺乏购买力的群体，也很少进行网络购物[1]。

英文文献检索网站有哪些

英文文献检索网站有Forgotten Books、古腾堡计划、World Public Library世界公共图书馆、Social Science Research Network、Open Access Library、Blackwell电子期刊、科研出版社OA资源、HighWire出版社电子期刊、Free ebooks、JustFreeBooks。

WitGuides、Many Books好多书、Free-eBooks、Bioline International、Internet Archive互联网档案馆、ebook-free、Digital Book Index、McMaster大学经济思想史书库、加利福尼亚大学国际和区域数字馆藏。

ProQuest

ProQuest是博士论文全文检索系统，PQDD的全称是ProQuest Digital Dissertations。而ProQuest的母公司是UMI，The answser Company (UMI有问必答公司），UMI成立于1938年，是全球最大的信息存储和发行商之一。

也是美国学术界著名的出版商，它向全球160多个国家提供信息服务，内容涉及商业管理、社会科学、人文科学、新闻、科学与技术、医药、金融与税务等。

急求：经济类3000字左右英文文献（带翻译更好）！~~

INTO THE STORM

FOR much of the past year the fast-growing economies of the emerging world watched the Western financial hurricane from afar. Their own banks held few of the mortgage-based assets that undid the rich world’s financial firms. Commodity exporters were thriving, thanks to high prices for raw materials. China’s economic juggernaut powered on. And, from Budapest to Brasília, an abundance of credit fuelled domestic demand. Even as talk mounted of the rich world suffering its worst financial collapse since the Depression, emerging economies seemed a long way from the centre of the storm.

过去一年的大部分时间里，高速发展的新兴国家一直在远处观望着西方国家的金融风暴。他们的银行仅持有少量抵押资产，而类似的资产已经破坏了发达国家的金融公司。商品出口商因为原材料的高价格而日渐富有。中国不可抗拒的经济力量已然开启，而且信贷刺激的内需从布达佩斯到巴西利亚都表现得非常充足。尽管大萧条后关于西方国家受难于金融崩塌的话题与日俱增，但新兴国家似乎距离金融风暴的中心还有一段距离。

No longer. As foreign capital has fled and confidence evaporated, the emerging world’s stockmarkets have plunged (in some cases losing half their value) and currencies tumbled. The seizure in the credit market caused havoc, as foreign banks abruptly stopped lending and stepped back from even the most basic banking services, including trade credits.

不过目前的情况不再是那样了，随着境外资本的流失和经济信心的消失，新兴国家股市暴跌（有些地区已经腰斩），本币迅速贬值。由于外国银行突然中断贷款，并且收缩了包括贸易信贷在内的基础银行服务，新兴国家的信贷市场突发混乱，并引发了一场浩劫。

Like their rich-world counterparts, governments are battling to limit the damage (see article). That is easiest for those with large foreign-exchange reserves. Russia is spending $220 billion to shore up its financial services industry. South Korea has guaranteed $100 billion of its banks’ debt. Less well-endowed countries are asking for help. Hungary has secured a EURO5 billion ($6.6 billion) lifeline from the European Central Bank and is negotiating a loan from the IMF, as is Ukraine. Close to a dozen countries are talking to the fund about financial help.

新兴国家的政府和发达国家的政府一样都在为控制损失程度而奋斗。不过对于外汇储备充足的国家来说难度会小一些：俄罗斯斥资2200亿美元重振金融服务行业；韩国政府担保了1000亿美元的银行债务。而那些储备并不充足的国家正在四处求援：匈牙利成功向欧洲央行求得了50亿欧元（约66亿美元）的生命线，同时也在同国际货币基金组织协商借款事宜，同时向国际货币基金组织求援的还有乌克兰。近一打儿的国家在向基金组织求助。

Those with long-standing problems are being driven to desperate measures. Argentina is nationalising its private pension funds, seemingly to stave off default (see article). But even stalwarts are looking weaker. Figures released this week showed that China’s growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter-still a rapid pace but a lot slower than the double-digit rates of recent years.

有持续问题的国家正棋行险招：阿根廷正在将私人养老金国有化，意图阻止违约的发生。即使强有力的国家也表现出虚弱一面：本周公布的数字表明今年中国的增长率在第三季度减缓为9%，虽然增速还算快，但是与近些年的两位数增率相比缓慢了不少。

Blowing cold on credit

对信贷没兴趣

The various emerging economies are in different states of readiness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous. Most obviously, how these countries fare will determine whether the world economy faces a mild recession or something nastier. Emerging economies accounted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months. But their economic fate will also have political consequences.

众多新兴经济的意愿并不相同，但是累计在一起的影响力却非同一般。最明显的就是这些国家的表现将会决定世界经济所面临的是一个较为缓和的衰退还是更可怕的情况。在过去18个月的全球经济增长中，新兴经济贡献了75%。但是他们的经济命运也会有一些政治后果。

In many places-eastern Europe is one example (see article)-financial turmoil is hitting weak governments. But even strong regimes could suffer. Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to contain social unrest. More generally, the coming strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world economy. Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today’s mess spread from the rich world, largely thanks to increasingly integrated capital markets. If emerging economies collapse-either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession-there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance.

在类似东欧的很多地区，金融混乱目前的打击目标是软弱的政府；但强硬的政权同样会尝到苦果。一些专家认为中国每年需要7%的增长率来阻止社会动荡的发生。总体来说，如此争端必将影响全球经济一体化的讨论。与以往数次新兴经济危机不同，这次的混乱始于发达国家，很大程度上要归咎于一体化的资本市场。一旦新兴经济崩溃，无论是货币危机还是剧烈的经济萧条，大家对于金融全球化是否属明智之举会有更多的质疑。

Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire. All emerging economies will slow. Some will surely face deep recessions. But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets. Good policy-both at home and in the rich world-can yet avoid a catastrophe.

幸运的是上述恐怖的场景没有发生在全球的每个角落：所有的新兴经济都会减缓发展速度，有一些也必将面临深度萧条；但是更多的国家在面临当下危机的时候却拥有比以往任何时候都强壮的形式，用充足的储备、弹性的货币和强大的预算武装自己。新兴国家及发达国家良好的政策可以避免大灾难的发生。

One reason for hope is that the direct economic fallout from the rich world’s disaster is manageable. Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexico. Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse. That has a mixed effect. Although it hurts commodity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps commodity importers in Asia and reduces inflation fears everywhere. Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable (see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the commodity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises.

至少有一个原因值得抱有希望：发达国家此次灾难的直接经济影响还是在可控的范围内。欧美锐减的需求对出口来说无疑是一个打击，特别是对亚洲和墨西哥。商品价格走低：原油价格与巅峰时期比较已经下降了60%，很多粮食和金属类商品跌幅更大。这两个现象有混合效果：尽管从俄罗斯到南美的商品（能源）出口企业备受打击，但却帮助了亚洲的商品（能源）进口商，并且缓和了各地对通胀的恐惧。委内瑞拉的情形一直很糟糕，也很脆弱；不过由于过去极度的繁荣，商品价格下跌目前还不会引发大范围传播的危机。

The more dangerous shock is financial. Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices decline. China’s house prices, for instance, have started falling (see article). This will dampen domestic confidence, even though consumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world. Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth. And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth.

比商品价格更令人震惊的事情发生在金融领域。由于资产价格的下降，财富水平正在被挤压缩水。以中国房价为例，目前已经开始下跌。尽管新兴国家的消费者比发达国家的负债水平低很多，上述情况还是会挫伤国内的经济信心。在其他方面，国外银行借款骤然匮乏、对冲基金以及其他投资者逃离债券市场，这些因素给信贷增长踩了一脚急刹车。正如发达的信贷曾经强力支撑国内支出那样，信贷紧缩将意味着增长放缓。

Again, the impact will differ by country. Thanks to huge current-account surpluses in China and the oil-exporters in the Gulf, emerging economies as a group still send capital to the rich world. But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP. Most of these are poor countries that live off foreign aid; but some larger ones rely on private capital. For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment. A particular worry is eastern Europe, where many countries have double-digit deficits. In addition, even some countries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance. The rich world’s bank bail-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow. The Institute of International Finance, a bankers’ group, expects a 30% decline in net flows of private capital from last year.

需要再次重申的是，冲击的表现会因国家的不同而有所区别。多亏中国和海湾产油国经常项目下的巨额顺差，新型经济整体还不断的向发达国家输送资本。但是80 多个国家的财政赤字已经超过GDP的5%，其中的多数是那些依靠国外救助过活得贫困国家；不过也有一些依靠私人资本的大国。对于类似土耳其和南非的国家来说，突然减缓的境外融资迫使其进行大幅调整。东欧的情况特别令人担忧，那里的不少国家赤字水平已经达到了两位数。另外，象俄罗斯这样处于顺差的国家，其银行也逐渐适应了可以轻易从外国取得的贷款，原因自然是全球金融一体化。发达国家的救助计划也许可以限制财富被挤压的水平，但资本流向新兴世界的速度无疑会减慢。国际金融研协会预测私人资本的净流量比去年回减少30%。

A wing and a prayer

飞行之翼与祈祷者

This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe. The biggest ones are in relatively good shape. The more vulnerable ones can (and should) be helped.

信贷紧缩必将令人生畏，不过多数新兴市场可以躲过一劫，最大的市场形势还相当不错。比较脆弱的市场可以（也应该）得到帮助。

Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-account surplus, little connection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to boost spending. Since the country’s leaders have made clear that they will do whatever it takes to cushion growth, China’s economy is likely to slow-perhaps to 8%-but not collapse. Although that is not enough to save the world economy, such growth in China would put a floor under commodity prices and help other countries in the emerging world.

在那些坚强的巨人中，中国卓然不群：手握2万亿美元的储备，经常项下的顺差状态，与国外银行罕有关联，过剩的预算给推动支出留有足够空间。鉴于国家领导人已经明确表示将不惜一切代价为经济增长减速缓冲，中国的经济增长应该会减缓到大约8%的水平，但是决不会崩溃。虽然这不足以挽救世界经济，但是该增长率将会为商品价格建底并帮到新兴世界的其他国家。

The other large economies will be harder hit, but should be able to weather the storm. India has a big budget deficit and many Brazilian firms have a large foreign-currency exposure. But Brazil’s economy is diversified and both countries have plenty of reserves to smooth the shift to slower growth. With $550 billion of reserves, Russia ought to be able to stop a run on the rouble. In the short-term at least, the most vulnerable countries are all smaller ones.

其他的经济大国会受到更大的冲击，不过应该可以禁受住风暴侵袭。印度的财政赤字巨大，巴西很多公司面临巨大的外汇风险。但巴西经济已经实现多样化，同时上述两个国家拥有充足的储备来平稳过渡到缓慢的增长。俄罗斯掌握着5500亿美元的储备，应该能够阻止对卢布的抢购。至少在短期内，小国家才是最弱不禁风的。

There will be pain as tighter credit forces adjustments. But sensible, speedy international assistance would make a big difference. Several emerging countries have asked America’s Federal Reserve for liquidity support; some hope that China will bail them out. A better route is surely the IMF, which has huge expertise and some $250 billion to lend. Sadly, borrowing from the fund carries a stigma. That needs to change. The IMF should develop quicker, more flexible financial instruments and minimise the conditions it attaches to loans. Over the past month deft policymaking saw off calamity in the rich world. Now it is time for something similar in the emerging world.

受到紧缩信贷压力进行的调整必然带来痛苦，但快速的国际援助是明智之举，因为这会让结果很不相同。一些新兴国家已经向美联储求援以缓解流动性问题；有一些则希望中国可以拯救他们与水火。更佳的求救路线莫过于国际货币基金组织，因为它掌握大量的专门知识和2500亿美元的可出借款项。不幸的是人们认为向基金借款有辱其名，国际货币基金组织应该推出更快捷、更灵活的金融工具，同时实现借贷条件最小化。过去数月中，机敏的决策驱散了发达国家的灾难。现在也正是新兴世界发生类似事情的时候了。

补充：economics上的文章

关于国际服务贸易的专业文献(英文)哪里找?

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我国服务贸易发展的现状与对策

摘要：服务贸易正逐渐成为全球经济竞争的重点。加入WTO以后,我国服务贸易获得了一定的发展,但也存在着一些问题。只有制定有效的措施，才能推动我国服务贸易的发展。

关键词：服务贸易；现状；对策

上世纪末以来，全球经济竞争的重点正从货物贸易转向服务贸易，服务业发达的程度成为衡量现代化水平的重要标志。目前，我国已进入全面建设小康社会的发展阶段，必须大力发展服务业，并把扩大服务业领域的对外开放作为我国更广泛地参与国际竞争、融入经济全球化的重要内容。

一、我国服务贸易的发展现状

近年来，我国服务业实现了持续、稳定、健康发展，服务业的发展促进了服务贸易的增长。1989年我国的服务贸易进出口总额在全世界名列第30位，2000年上升到第12位。但是，由于我国服务贸易起点低、基础差，与发达国家相比仍有很大差距，主要表现在：

1、服务贸易整体水平差

我国服务业总量不足，在国民经济中比重偏低。2001年我国服务业增加值32254亿元，占GDP的比重为33. 6％。与中等收入国家的46%—56%、高收入国家的59％—65%相比，还有很大的差距。服务业落后使我国服务贸易的发展受到很大的制约。2002年我国服务贸易总额为660亿美元，占全球服务贸易总额的2.3％。而同期美国服务贸易总额占全球的16.5％，是我国的7倍多。从总体上看，除旅游等少数行业外，多数服务贸易领域处于逆差状态。加入WTO后，服务贸易逆差有可能进一步扩大．

2、服务贸易内部结构不合理

1995—2002年，我国服务出口总额中，旅游服务一直居于首位，其比重由27. 6％升至36. 5％：金融服务所占比重一直在19％左右；运输服务的比重有所下降，由27. 1％降为19%。而以信息技术为基础的新兴服务业则是明显的弱项，1995年这类产业在服务进口额中所占比重为22. 9％，2001年剧增为52. 4%，是使我国服务贸易逆差日益增大的重要因素。

3、服务贸易管理滞后

由于服务业是由许多相关行业组成的产业群，国际服务贸易涉及的行业范围极广，国际社会要求一国对其国内的服务业进行整体协调和管理。目前，我国对外服务贸易管理体制存在许多缺陷，如中央与地方在服务业对外贸易政策和规章方面还存在一定的差别，服务业多头管理、政出多门甚至相互掣肘的问题还没有完全解决，服务业的统计也不规范，行业标准等方面有许多不符合国际惯例。

4、服务贸易立法不健全

长期以来，我国服务贸易立法严重滞后，虽然近年颁布了《商业银行法》、《保险法》、《海商法》等，但与服务贸易广泛的内涵和国际服务贸易发展的要求相比还存在许多不足。目前我国尚没有一个关于服务业的一般性法律，已有的规定主要表现为各职能部门的规章和内部文件，不仅立法层次较低，而且缺乏协调，从而影响了我国服务贸易立法的统一性和透明度。

二、加入WTO对我国服务贸易的影响

我国加入WTO后，服务业市场将在原有的基础上进一步扩大对外开放，这将对我国服务贸易的发展带来深刻的影响。

1、服务贸易市场化进程进一步加快

放宽限制、开放市场是服务贸易发展的关键。加入WTO，部分服务行业的市场准入，将不再仅仅受国内有关部门的控制，而是要执行我国政府对世贸组织的承诺，这将有利于打破国内部分行业的垄断局面，有利于国内行业学习国外先进的经验，使其提高服务质量和水平，进一步推动我国服务业的发展和国际竞争力的提高。

2、有利于改善我国的投资环境

投资环境不仅仅体现于公路、通信、电力供应等硬件的好坏，越来越多地体现于金融、分销、专业服务等生产性服务的完备与质量等方面。我国服务业总体上落后，而生产性服务更为落后，这正是外国投资者看中我国市场的重要原因。服务业的对外开旅，将吸引更多的外资进入我国服务业，这将有力地促进服务业，特别是生产性服务业的快速发展，改善我国投资的软环境，进而带动国内整个经济的发展。

3、有利于引入新的服务种类

我国服务业的落后，在很大程度上表现为服务种类、品种的缺乏，许多服务领域需要填补“国内空白”。在世界贸易组织划分的143个行业中，我国商业化的税务服务、民意测验服务、信用查询等行业，基本上处于空白状态。在许多行业，具体的服务领域、服务品种还存在大量空白。服务市场的开放和外资的进入，将在相当程度上弥补我国服务业发展中的各种空白，满足国内经济发展和人民生活的各种需要。

4、有利于在更深层次上参与世界经济结构的调整

在经济全球化趋势的推动下，全球服务业也在酝酿着世界范围的调整。加入WTO，有利于我国借发达国家向海外转移劳动密集型、资本密集型服务业之机，吸引外国投资，改善我国服务业的内部结构；也有利于我国服务提供者进入国际市场，实施“走出去”战略，扩大服务贸易出口。

三、增强我国服务贸易竞争力的主要措施

1、优化服务行业结构

大力发展现代服务业，重点发展信息、科技、咨询、法律等行业，带动服务业整体水平提高。积极发展新兴服务业，如房地产、物业管理、旅游、教育培训、文化体育等，形成新的经济增长点。改组改造传统产业，运用现代经营方式和服务技术，着重改造商贸流通、交通运输、餐饮等行业，提高技术水平和经营效率。

2、放宽服务业市场准入

改变部分行业垄断经营严重、市场准入限制过严的状况，按市场主体资质和服务标准，逐步形成公开透明、管理规范的市场准入制度。加快垄断行业管理体制的改革，放宽部分行业市场准入的资质条件，鼓励非国有经济在更广泛的领域参与服务业发展。还要改革市场准入的行政审批制度，减少行政审批项目。

3、多渠道增加服务业投入

中央和地方各级政府，都要适当安排一定数量的投资，作为加快发展服务业的引导资金，主要用于国家鼓励的服务业建设项目的贴息或补助，以更多地吸引银行信贷资金和社会投入。银行要在独立审贷的基础上积极向符合贷款条件的服务业企业及其建设项目发放贷款．鼓励符合条件的服务业企业进入资本市场融资。

4、加强对服务业的组织领导

进一步转变观念，统一思想，提高认识，把服务业摆到与农业、工业同等重要的位置。各级政府要切实履行职责，为加快发展服务业创造良好的环境。制定和完善规范服务业市场主体行为和市场秩序的法律法规，为服务业发展提供法律保障。

参考文献：

〔1〕王克培.论我国对外贸易的发展前景.四川理工学院学报(哲社版).2003,(3).

〔2〕童军.WTO与我国服务业的发展〔J〕.凉山大学学报.2002,(4).

论我国服务贸易发展中的问题与对策

作者：沈明其 更新时间：2006-2-6 点击次数：

【内容提要】当前有关服务贸易的研究大都集中在对服务贸易的全球化，自由化以及中国入世后对服务贸易保护政策的研究讨论上。本文从宏观角度来全面综合论述了我国服务贸易的发展现状和解决对策。主要采用了理论分析与实证分析相结合，概述与论证相统一的方法，通过对我国服务贸易历年来的进出口贸易额，进出口贸易结构等数据的比较研究，来比较分析我国服务贸易的比较优势和劣势的存在。并提出相应的对策，如完善我国服务贸易的法律体系，降低市场准入门槛，更新服务贸易观念，积极参加国际服务贸易双边和多边谈判，促进服务贸易自由化等对策，来扬长避短，大力发展我国服务贸易，增强我国服务贸易的国际竞争力，使之成为我国国民经济新的经济增长点。

【关键词】服务贸易 世界贸易组织 服务贸易总协定

一、我国服务贸易发展的现状

（一）我国近年来的服务贸易进出口情况

如图一所示，1998-2002年我国服务贸易总额③不断上升，进口额和出口额也不断增加，但是始终表现为贸易逆差。由此证明我国服务贸易在国际市场上的竞争力不足。而这种趋势短期内难以改变。

（二）我国现行的服务贸易制度状况

自20世纪80年代以来，我国先后颁布实施了《民法通则》、《对外贸易法》、《商业银行法》、《海商法》等多部法律，为人们构建起了一个服务贸易基本规则框架体系。这些法律大都参照了大陆法与英美法的相应规定，并按照我国所参与的国际公约制定和实施。

目前，我国已经加入了WTO，进入服务业的民间资本和外资迅速增加，为服务业的发展提供了巨大的潜力和发展空间。而国家促进服务业发展的政策导向力度也在逐步加大。国务院办公厅于2001年11月转发了国家计委关于《“十五”期间加快发展服务贸易若干政策措施的意见》，提出了加快服务业的政策措施，这无疑对服务业的发展是一个有力的推动。其后，中国政府在关于服务贸易的十二大领域中，先后颁布实施了一些相对性政策法规。如，《关于发布港口管理信息系统数据字典等八项交通行业标准的通知》，《国家外汇管理局关于现行法规中没有明确规定的非贸易项目售付汇有关问题的通知》，《关于加强城市商业网点规划工作的通知》，《关于对外商投资企业执行“企业会计制度”情况进行调查的通知》等等。还有关于开放我国服务市场方面，对零售业，运输业，电信业，教育业，银行业等都规定了一定的开放度，逐步实现我国政府对入世所做的承诺。为了使我国的服务贸易融入世界服务贸易之中，也为了使我国的服务贸易得到更好的发展，依据WTO的《服务贸易总协定》就成了我们现在构建服务贸易制度的基础。所以，我们现行的或者正在拟草制定的，都是从促进完善我国的服务贸易并早日使我国的服务贸易的法律制度的市场规范与世界接轨的方向发展的。

（三）我国服务贸易的发展趋势

世贸组织日前公布的2002年度全球贸易情况报告称，全球贸易额去年增长2.5%，其中货物贸易总额为6.24万亿美元，比上一年度增长4%，服务贸易额达创纪录的1.54万亿美元。 美、德、日、法继续保持世界贸易前四强地位，中国则超过英国，成为世界第五大贸易国。报告分析认为，2002年全球贸易在企业跨国投资放缓、汇率风险加大、企业及消费者趋于保守的背景下取得恢复性增长，主要归功于美国市场的强劲需求和东亚国家，特别是中国的高速发展。

近期，国家外汇管理局又公布了2002年中国国际收支平衡表。 2002年我国国际收支经常项目顺差354.22亿美元。按照国际收支统计口径计算，货物出口3256.51亿美元，货物进口2814.84亿美元，顺差441.67亿美元；服务项目收入397.45亿美元，支出465.28亿美元，逆差67.84亿美元；收益项目收入83.44亿美元，支出232.89亿美元，逆差149.45亿美元；经常转移收入137.95亿美元，支出8.11亿美元，顺差129.84亿美元。该表显示了2002年我国国际收支经常项目、资本和金融项目继续呈现双顺差，国际储备保持增长，国际收支总体状况良好。

由此可见，中国经济在世界经济中的突出表现是举世瞩目的。而服务贸易必将在这样有利的国内外环境中经济蓬勃发展。虽然当前受到全球经济持续疲软、伊拉克战争带来的政治不稳定性和非典型肺炎三大因素的制约，但是由于中国内部拥有的一个广阔市场和高效的宏观调控机制，就象往年面对亚洲金融危机，9.11事件的突发，一样可以克服众多不利因素而保持经济的持续的增长。

二、我国服务贸易发展中存在的问题

（一）服务贸易结构不合理

如图二所示，1998-2002年服务贸易总额构成比例，除了2001年的各大服务行业贸易额构成比例比较均匀之外，其他各年的服务行业贸易额都相差悬殊，且旅游，运输，其他商业服务占较大比重。因此，不难发现，我国服务贸易在发展过程中需要进行长期的结构调整，使各大服务贸易行业都可以得到均衡发展。

（二）服务贸易的法律体系、市场体系不完善

虽然中国政府一直在努力推进管理体制的改革，但始终都存在着一些另人遗憾的漏洞，而这些管理体系的瑕疵给服务贸易的发展带来了不小的障碍。

1、服务业的行业垄断。我国的一些行业如电信，金融，保险，教育具有的强垄断性，不仅破坏了正常的公平竞争秩序，而且还导致了服务业创新动力的缺乏和效率的低下。 中国的服务业要适应未来服务业发展开放的大环境，必然要求打破行业垄断，实现服务贸易的自由化。

2、服务贸易保障制度不完善。服务贸易保障制度上的不完善，主要是指对服务行业里的一些弱势产业，像数据处理，技术服务，咨询，专业服务等需要有一些专门的保护政策来应对我国入世后国外相关产业对这些行业的冲击，使其可以健康成长而不至于夭折。目前，中国政府在电信，银行，教育等行业制定比较全面保护政策，在一定程度上也影响了贸易的自由化，所以如何制定出有效的贸易保障政策，既可以使本国服务贸易行业健康发展又可以保证贸易的自由化，就要对WTO的GATS的进行认真研究学习。

（三）服务贸易交易方式落后

现代电子商务在服务贸易领域中，深刻地影响着全球商业贸易形式和市场结构，影响着人民的经济生活和社会生活方式，加速了工业社会向信息社会的转变。

据统计，中国目前有各种不同的电子商务网站1,000多个，其中B to C④677家、B to B 370家，ISP⑤620家，去年B to C交易额为3.9亿元人民币，B2B交易额为67.7亿元人民币。存在有各种不同B to B、B to C、C to C等商业模式，有各种不同的电子商务平台和解决方案，但整体来说呈现自发性、局部性、重复性、缺乏技术创新、缺乏整体规划性和统一的规范，有很多网站的商业模式是单纯模仿国外企业，并不适应中国国情，不利于电子商务的发展。这个问题已经引起了广泛的关注。另外，从中国目前电子商务发展的现实情况来看，网络结构复杂，不同行业、不同网络之间不能互联互通，各种资源难以充分共享，网络应用落后于网络技术的高速发展，传统企业难以适应信息技术的快速发展。

据预测，到2003年全球电子商务的交易值将超过一点二万亿美元。在未来5-10年内将是信息技术继续突飞猛进、新经济高速成长、全球经济结构调整的重要时期，也将是中国大力发展电子商务、以信息化带动工业化、参与全球化、实现中国现代化的关键时期。发展电子商务已经不仅仅是基础经济的问题，也不仅仅是商务模式划分的问题，而是关系中国在未来信息经济社会中的竞争力和生存发展的重要问题。

（四）服务贸易理念落后

我国的服务贸易业，过去长期处于封闭的环境中，受某些陈旧观念的束缚和影响至深，因而企业规模小，服务设施差。思想观念落后，服务质量水平低，难以适应加入WTO后我国对外全面开放的经济形势，更难以与国外服务贸易领域里的跨国公司相抗衡。

在我国经济学理论中，仍把服务定义为服务属于流通领域，因此服务不创造价值。而这种论述在WTO将服务贸易外延扩大，内涵深化之后，服务项目不仅提供使用价值，有的还创造价值。还有长期以来，我国经济生活中，服务部门对待客户有一个统一规矩，那就是一视同仁。为了表示不嫌贫爱富，比如银行对经济效益不好，资金留存率低的企业也同样提供资金放贷等服务，结果往往血本无归，还陪上人工费，通讯费等开支。而不象国外银行“看客下菜碟”，对客户进行细分，既保证了收汇的安全，又满足了客户的需求。

三、发展我国服务贸易的若干对策

1、完善服务贸易的基本法律，增强法律的可操作性。为了提高我国服务业的国际地位，必须从提高行业中的竞争程度入手，完善服务业的市场体系，增强法律的可操作性。加快和制定行业性法规，如商法，金融服务法规，电信服务法规，交通运输法规，知识产权法规等，注重参照国际条约和国外立法经验，加大立法力度，理顺各种法律法规与服务行业内部之间的关系，使得服务贸易领域的法律法规健全，相互协调，共同形成结构清晰，层次分明，相互衔接，疏而不漏的有机整体。

2、实现服务业增长方式的转变。主要是指由粗放型，外延型到集约型，内涵型的转变，使服务贸易的发展，服务贸易的出口收入的增长真正建立在提高劳动生产率的基础上，而不是靠一般劳动力的大量投入。同时在服务贸易出口方面，在发挥优势，进一步扩大劳动密集型服务的出口时，也要对那些尚处于“幼稚”状态的知识密集型服务产业加以适当的保护，使其尽快发展并渐进对外开放。今后中国服务出口的大方向应该是：一般劳动密集型服务出口为主，知识技术密集型服务出口为辅→两者并举→知识技术密集型服务出口为主，一般劳动密集型服务出口为辅。

3、参加国际服务贸易的双边与多边谈判，争取更有利的国际环境。我国已经入世，谈判地位大大提高。而且我国亦为GATS的创始方和起草方。这些都有助于我国的服务贸易谈判。我国已于其他各方讨论了服务贸易的出价和减让，在服务贸易的政策立法上，也已考虑了总协定的原则和要求。随着改革开放的继续深化和世界经济一体化趋势的进一步加强，继续在互惠互利原则上进行服务贸易谈判，就显的越发重要。

4、更新服务贸易的观念。首先是对服务贸易概念的更新。服务贸易的定义其实十分广泛，服务贸易领域创造的价值在每年的WTO年度报告中可见一般。对服务贸易的认识和创新也决定着各国服务贸易的发展水平。所以我们要克服服务贸易中陈旧，僵化的思想，将“差别服务”⑥走向前台，正确应对服务贸易自由化潮流，尝新服务贸易的未识领域。再次就是关于服务贸易的安全性观念。由于航空，电信，金融，咨询，广告的行业直接涉及国家的主权和安全，国家机构要加强安全意识，特别是在我国法制不够健全的情况下，应采取循序渐进，有选择，有步骤，有条件的开放市场的方针，把关系到国家经济命脉，主权，安全的关键领域做战略问题加以处理，实行有效监督和管理，使之为国家利益服务。

5、保持和促进原有优势产业，同时优化产业结构，寻找新的增长点，创新服务贸易未识领域。我国的优势服务产业主要集中在劳务和旅游这两大方面。这两方面总的来说都属于劳动密集型行业，科技含量比较低。但是对我国来说，他们却有着重要的意义。我国旅游资源和劳务资源都是很丰富的，因此，我们在这两个方面的投入成本较低，在世界市场上具有较强的竞争力。比如说95年我国旅游收入为87.33亿美元；而2000年我国旅游收入为293.45亿美元，比95年增长了336%；2002年我国旅游收入为357.83亿美元，比2000年增长了122%。但是，在保持优势的同时，我们也要加大这两方面的科技投入，要改善旅游环境，提高劳务输出素质，这样才能更好的发挥我们的优势。另外，我们也要优化服务行业的产业结构，要让新兴服务行业在世界市场上占据一席之地。

6、有步骤的推进服务贸易自由化。我国服务贸易与发达国家比，起步晚，总体发展水平低，许多行业仍处于幼稚时期。同时服务市场发育不完全，服务企业竞争力弱，再加上服务业本身具有综合性，复杂性和广泛性等特征，不可激进的推进服务贸易的自由化，而是有步骤的逐渐推进服务贸易的自由化。在保障本国经济健康稳定的条件下，按照一定比例来开放服务业，保证在服务贸易自由化，全球化，一体化的进程中受益多于不利。

7、大力发展电子商务 。电子商务基于因特网技术所拥有的特别优势，不论在9.11事件、美伊战争，还是今年的非典疫情，都发挥了明显效用，使中国经济和世界经济都可以稳步向前发展。而传统交易模式在面对突发事件带来的巨大冲击时，往往表现出脆弱的一面。因此，大力发展中国的网络事业，降低因类似的事件给服务行业和市场带来巨大冲击是一种非常可行的应对措施。

建设统一的电子商务综合服务平台是中国电子商务产业化发展的关键。"全球化时代的电子商务"专题会议的召开，为全球电子商务专家研究中国电子商务的应用机制、商业模式和基础设施以及技术标准等一系列问题提供了一个良好的契机。好的技术和产品，我们要大力推广和应用。

[注释]

1.GATS就是《服务贸易总协定》。1994年4月15日，各成员方在马拉喀什正式签署《服务贸易总协定》，它于1995年1月1日和世界贸易组织同时生效。

2.国际服务贸易分类表，是由WTO世贸组织统计和信息系统局（SISD）提供的，并经WTO服务贸易理事会评审认可。此分类表是按照GNS（一般国家标准）服务部门分类法，将全世界的服务部门分为11大类142个服务项目。

3.1998-2002年的服务贸易总额分别为：530.45亿美元，550.69亿美元，664.61亿美元，726.01亿美元，862.73亿美元。

4.B to B 指企业到企业；B to C指企业到客户。

5.ISP是Internet Service Provider的缩写，意为“Internet服务提供商”，这里的服务主要是指Internet接入服务，即通过电话线把你的计算机或其他终端设备连入Internet。

6.差别服务：是指分别出客户对企业带来经济效益的情况，对其实施不同的、有差别待遇的服务。

[参考文献]

1、盛 斌：中国加入WTO服务贸易自由化的评估与分析[J]，世界经济2002（8）。

2、肖中明：中国服务贸易出口：特征与原因分析[J]，涉外经济2002（10）。

3、李善同：凸现新经济特点——世界服务业发展趋势[J]，国际贸易2002（3）。

4、陈宪，程大中：服务贸易的发展与中国的“入世”后的对策[J]，外贸经济 国际贸易，2002（7）。

5、社会消费品零售总额（按行业分）[J]，中国经济景气月报，2002（10）。

6、1990-2001年世界区域性商业服务贸易增长一览表[J]，世界贸易组织动态与研究，2002（10）。

7、郑吉昌：论国际服务贸易及自由化趋势[J]，国际经贸探索，2002（1）。

8、徐桂英，宋立功：构建我国服务贸易法律体系框架[J]，经济论坛，2002（20）。

9、黄伟：东亚服务贸易的概况及其构成分析[J]，国际贸易问题，2002（9）。

10、王 粤：服务贸易—自由化与竞争力[M]，北京：中国人民大学出版社，2003。

11、谭小芬：中国服务贸易竞争力的国际比较[J]，外贸经济、国际贸易，2003（6）。

12、邓世荣：我国服务贸易承诺表中的市场准入与国民待遇研究[J]，外贸经济、国际贸易，2003（3）。

本文发表于《教育经济与管理》2004年第七期

关于电子商务环境下物流配送方面的英文文献

E-business environment under the logistics and distribution

Abstract: e-commerce under the logistics and distribution will help reduce production business inventories and accelerate capital turnover, enhance logistics efficiency and reduce logistics costs, and stimulate the social needs and is conducive to the whole community's macro-control and promote the healthy operation of the market economy and electronic Business to develop in depth.

Key words: e-commerce distribution

First, China's development of logistics distribution

E-commerce logistics entity is the core issue of the distribution items. China, as a developing country, the logistics industry to its late start, low level, the introduction of e-commerce, e-commerce did not have to support the activities of the modern logistics level. However, since e-commerce in China to settle down, people did not stop distribution of the discussion. At present, China mainly three types of e-commerce distribution model, is a full distribution system, that is, the domestic Internet-based, to various regions of the country's logistics system has been linked by agreement, a comprehensive distribution network for the entire process straight . The second category is a regional system of a single business model. Partial to the original business of a single regional distribution site for the base and be integrated, similar to a single business to business services, computer networking, the entire system of networking, and automated management. The third category is professional distribution system of the model. Such as postal communications, railway transport, air, water, Qiyun and other departments have been the perfect use of the national transport network resources to carry out specialized distribution. From across the country, China has long been subject to the impact of the planned economy, low levels of social logistics, logistics management system confusion, the existing three categories of e-commerce distribution model is not yet ripe, efficiency is not high, but in the red. Therefore, the need for China's economic development, enterprise reform and development of e-commerce logistics and distribution, learn from developed countries through the road and experience from China in 1992 began a logistics distribution center of the experimental work. In 1996 the Internal Trade issued "on strengthening the commercial development of logistics distribution center construction work of the notice," pointed out the development and construction of logistics distribution center the importance of the proposed development and construction of the guiding ideology and principle, put forward the "mechanisms and intensive Management, improve the function of the development of the logistics and enhance strength "of the reform and development principles, to establish modern logistics distribution center to change the social construction of logistics distribution centers, the development of modern network as the main direction.

Second, China's logistics and distribution patterns and problems of

At present, China's increased the number of e-commerce sites, transactions involving goods of daily necessities and other non-consumables, and on its e-commerce distribution model, can be divided into three types, namely operating BtoB (business to business) business model, BtoC (Business to consumers) model and the virtual logistics company model, in practice, although these three models get the recognition and application of common, but in e-commerce and distribution of convergence and optimal operation, there are still many problems, reflected in concrete :

China's current social low level of information networks, network infrastructure is relatively weak, especially as e-commerce platform for the delivery and billing infrastructure lags behind, the computer penetration rate low rate of Internet users only about 8 percent and are mainly concentrated in major cities , The use of Internet users in the real rate of online shopping less than 0.5 percent, electronic shopping credit has not been widely recognized.

The understanding of the importance of e-commerce logistics enough. Availability of the overall level of enterprise network low ratio of less than Internet companies, logistics enterprise information construction lagged behind, logistics and distribution of specialization, social, electronic, modern low level.

There have been serious problems of poor business reputation, late delivery, delivery or do not send the wrong frequent phenomenon.

E-commerce logistics infrastructure is not yet perfect, logistics systems theory is not enough, the logistics technology is still very backward, China's logistics workers and practice the theory of modern logistics of the new theories, new technologies, such as integrated supply chain management, third party logistics, automation Warehouse, automatic sorting system, global positioning system (GPS), and so has just contacted.

Jidong of the lack of e-commerce and e-commerce technology has practical experience in human resources, in particular the lack of Jidong e-commerce and logistics distribution to understand the innovative spirit of the compound talents.

Third, logistics and healthy development of the countermeasure

1. Enhance the degree of information. Distribution of information for performance: the logistics of the database of information collection and code, the logistics of the electronic information processing and computer, the transmission of information and the standardization of real-time logistics information such as the digital storage. Therefore, the bar-code technology, database technology, electronic ordering system, electronic data exchange, radio frequency technology, management information systems, enterprise resource planning, and other advanced management strategy should be in China's logistics and distribution enterprises to promote use. Information is all modern technology and management tools of the foundation, only to achieve distribution of information can take up to the era of e-commerce distribution industry and historic task.

2. Improve the logistics management system, improve service quality. Internet shopping for the delivery time is too long and has yet to supply the phenomenon as e-commerce company in order to better serve customers, suppliers and customers should be strengthened between the exchange of information and feedback. This will save users to order processing fees, users can also save time and gradually raise awareness of online shopping sense of trust, making good steady development of e-commerce.

3. Distribution lower prices. China's large-scale development of e-commerce online shopping has been difficult, logistics and distribution costs high, especially in the type of Internet transactions, for each client to achieve door-to-door is the high cost, we must work hard to reduce costs, e-commerce solution Logistics and distribution companies and distribution services among enterprises in the prices of contradictions.

4. Perfect laws and policies. E-commerce for the logistics and distribution problems, the relevant government departments should actively study the characteristics of e-commerce, the rapid development of targeted laws, regulations and policies to regulate e-commerce activities, enterprises and consumers in general to increase the confidence of e-commerce Flu.

5. Actively developing third-party logistics enterprises. "TPL" refers to the logistics business from the supply side and demand-side beyond the completion of a third party, in a sense that it is a form of logistics professionalism, "third-party logistics" in logistics management experience, Talent, technology, philosophy and other areas have certain advantages, the e-commerce transactions in both supply and demand of all the logistics activities of agent credentials, well-funded third-party logistics, the logistics can take full advantage of modern technology, is built on the foundation of modern information network technology On the logistics management software to ensure that customers at any time and any place check of goods and provision of supporting services, e-commerce transactions between the parties involved in the logistics can be entrusted to professional logistics enterprises, concentrate on developing the electronics market and business efficiency of the e-commerce BtoB transactions.

The establishment of a national logistics public information platform, the development of 4PL. 4PL is a supply chain integrator, mobilization and management organizations and their complementarity of the service provider's resources, capacity and technology to provide an integrated supply chain solutions. Clearly, 4PL must meet three conditions: not the interests of the logistics side, to achieve information sharing, the ability to integrate all the logistics resources. And really meet these conditions, only a virtual network of platforms, and this is the logistics and public information platform. It provides comprehensive supply chain solutions to social integration of logistics resources, enhance the country's logistics industry integrated collaborative capabilities.

电子商务环境下的物流配送

摘要：电子商务下的物流配送既有利于减少生产企业库存，加速资金周转，提高物流效率，降低物流成本，又刺激了社会需求，有利于整个社会的宏观调控，促进市场经济的健康运行及电子商务向纵深发展。

关键词：电子商务 物流 配送

一、我国物流配送发展概况

电子商务物流的核心问题是实体物品的配送。我国作为一个发展中国家，物流业起步较晚，水平低，在引进电子商务时，并不具备能够支持电子商务活动的现代化物流水平。但自从电子商务在中国落户，人们就没有停止对物流配送问题的讨论。目前，我国主要有三类电子商务物流配送模式，一类是全程物流配送系统，即以国内互联网为基础，把全国各地区已有的物流系统通过协议联系起来，形成全方位的全程直投配送网。第二类是区域性单一业务系统改造模式。以原有局部区域性单一业务的配送站点为基础，并加以集成，把单一业务改为同类业务服务，通过计算机联网，实现整个系统的网络化、自动化管理。第三类是专业化配送系统改造模式。如邮政通讯、铁运、空运、水运、汽运等部门利用已有的完善的全国性运输网络资源进行专业化配送。从全国范围来看，我国长期以来受计划经济的影响，物流社会化程度低，物流管理体制混乱，已有的三类电子商务物流配送模式还不成熟，效率不高，而且处于亏损状态。因此，针对我国经济发展需要、企业改革及电子商务物流配送发展现状，借鉴发达国家走过的道路和经验，我国从1992年起开始了物流配送中心的试点工作。1996年原国内贸易部发出了《关于加强商业物流配送中心发展建设工作的通知》，指出了发展建设物流配送中心的重要意义，提出发展建设的指导思想和原则，同时提出了“转换机制、集约经营、完善功能、发展物流、增强实力”的改革与发展方针，确定以向现代化物流配送中心转变，建设社会化的物流配送中心，发展现代化网络为主要方向。

二、我国物流配送模式及存在的问题

目前我国电子商务网站数量大增，交易商品涉及日用品及其他非易耗品等，就其电子商务物流配送模式而言，可分为三种类型，分别是经营BtoB（商家对商家）业务的模式、BtoC（商家对消费者）的模式以及虚拟物流公司模式，在实践中这三种模式虽然得到共同的认同与应用，但在电子商务与物流配送的接轨和优化运行上还存在许多问题，具体体现在：

中国目前的社会信息网络化水平低，网络基础设施相对薄弱，特别是作为电子商务平台的传递和结算基础设施滞后，计算机普及率低，网民比率只有8%左右，并主要集中在各大中城市，网民中真正采用网上购物的比率不到0.5%，电子购物的信用没有得到广泛认同。

对电子商务物流的重要性认识不够。供货企业网络化整体水平低，上网企业比率不足，物流企业信息化建设滞后，物流配送的专业化、社会化、电子化、现代化程度低。

存在严重的商业信誉差的问题，迟送、送错或不送现象时有发生。

电子商务物流基础尚不完善，物流理论还不够系统，物流技术还很落后，我国物流理论工作者和实践者对现代物流的新理论、新技术，如集成化供应链管理、第三方物流、自动化立体仓库、全自动分拣系统、全球定位系统（GPS）等才刚刚接触。

缺乏既懂电子商务理论和技术又有电子商务实践经验人才，尤其缺乏既懂电子商务又懂物流配送的有创新精神的复合型人才。

三、物流配送健康发展的对策

1.提高信息化程度。物流配送信息化表现为：物流信息收集的数据库化和代码化、物流信息处理的电子化和计算机化、信息传递的标准化和实时化、物流信息存储的数字化等。因此,条码技术、数据库技术、电子订货系统、电子数据交换、射频技术、管理信息系统、企业资源计划等先进的管理策略，应在我国的物流配送企业大力推广运用。信息化是一切现代技术和管理手段的基础，只有实现物流配送信息化,才能承担起电子商务时代赋予物流配送业的历史任务。

2.完善物流管理系统功能,提高售后服务质量。针对网上购物出现的送货时间过长以及迟迟没有货源的现象，作为电子商务公司为了能更好的服务于顾客，应加强顾客和供货商之间信息的交流与反馈。这样可以给用户节约订单处理费用，又可以节约用户的时间，逐渐提高人们对网上购物的信任感，使得电子商务良性稳步发展。

3.降低配送服务价格。我国发展电子商务实现大规模的网上购物一直困难重重，物流配送费用偏高，特别是零售型的网上交易，为每个客户实现送货上门是高成本的，必须努力降低成本，解决电子商务公司与物流配送企业之间在配送服务价格方面的矛盾。

4.完善法律政策。针对电子商务物流配送出现的种种问题，政府有关部门应该积极研究电子商务的特点，迅速制定有针对性地法律、法规和政策，以规范电子商务活动，增加企业和广大消费者对电子商务的信任感。

5.积极发展第三方物流企业。“第三方物流”是指物流由商务的供方、需方之外的第三方完成,从某种意义上说它是物流专业化的一种形式，“第三方物流”一般在物流管理经验、人才、技术、理念等方面都具有一定的优势,对电子商务交易中供求双方的所有物流活动进行全权代理，同时第三方物流资金雄厚,可以充分利用现代物流技术,具有建立在现代信息网络技术基础上的物流管理软件,保证客户在任何时间、任何地点查看货物及提供配套的服务，参与电子商务交易的双方可以把物流委托给专业物流企业,专心于电子市场的开拓和商务效率的提高电子商务BtoB交易模式。

建立全国物流公共信息平台，发展第四方物流。第四方物流是一个供应链集成商，它调集和管理组织自己的以及具有互补性的服务提供商的资源、能力和技术，以提供一个综合的供应链解决方案。显然，第四方物流必须满足三个条件：不是物流的利益方、能实现信息共享、有能力整合所有的物流资源。而真正满足这些条件的只有一种虚拟的物流网平台，这就是全国物流公共信息平台。它能提供综合的供应链解决方案，以整合社会物流资源，提高我国物流产业的综合协同能力。

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